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Bila 40-49 Tahun bermula Fasa Senyap Hidup

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Period When to Make Money

Samuel Benner, a farmer from the 1800s, published a book with market analysis on periods of panic, good times to buy, and good times to sell. 150 years later, his analysis has proven to be remarkably accurate.
Cool chart, but a quick Grok query reveals quite a few misses:


(Excerpt):
"For example, starting from 1873, predicted panic years included 1891, 1911, 1927, 1945, 1965, 1981, 1999, and 2019. Comparing these to historical events:

- Hits include 1873 (Panic of 1873), 1999 (close to Dot-com crash 2000-2002), and 2019 (close to COVID-19 crash in 2020).

- Misses include 1927 (no major panic, crash in 1929) and 1945 (post-WWII boom, no panic).
For good and hard times, an updated chart from 1924 to 2059 suggests 8-year cycles (e.g., 1932-1939 as B, good times), but historical data shows these classifications often did not align with market performance, such as growth during supposed hard times."

~30% success rate certainly isn't bad, but not much better than those streams that use chickens to pick stocks 😅

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